3× census swing: 11 pts at 7am → 31 pts at 7pm peak
Coverage gap: Only 2 providers 10pm–7am while clearing 20 patients
Peak coverage: 4 providers overlap 3pm–6pm during plateau (26-31 pts)
Night drain: Census drops -2.6/hr at midnight (steepest decline)
Resident (13 pts)
AP (16 pts)
Flex Attending (16 pts)
Peds Intern (4 pts)
Peds Senior (7 pts)
EM Intern Day (7 pts)
EM Intern Night (7 pts)
ATTENDING SHIFTS
Check-ins/hr
Three-Phase Model: Providers see more patients early when fresh, taper in middle hours, and wind down at end (no new patients in final hour).
First 6 hours:1.5× base rate
Middle hours:0.5× base rate
Final hour(s):0 patients
Note: Flex Attending has 1.5h wind-down; all others have 1h.
6
Total Shifts
3
EM Resident
2
AP
1
Attending
87
Total Patients/Day
3
Peds Shifts
15
Peds Patients
2
EM Intern Shifts
14
EM Intern Patients
Patient Flow InsightsFY24/25 Peds ED Data Winter (Oct–Mar)
96
Arrivals/Day
84
Discharges
12
Admits (12%)
3
LWBS (3%)
7 AM Handoff
11 patients
8 in rooms3 waiting
Lowest census. Day builds: +0.9 to +2.7/hr
7 PM Handoff
31 patients
20 in rooms11 waiting
Peak census. Night clears: -0.9 to -2.6/hr
Peak Plateau
1 PM – 9 PM
Census 26-31, net flow near zero. Holding pattern.
Night Drain
9 PM – 7 AM
Census drops 31 to 11. Steepest at midnight (-2.6/hr).
ED Census (hover for net flow)
7A12P7P12A6A
Arrivals vs Dispositions (hover for detail)
7A12P7P12A6A
Low
Moderate
High
Night clears; Day builds
Daily Variability: How Census Ranges Across Different Days (hover for details)
50403020100
7A12P7P12A6A
Surge (top 5%)
Busy (top 25%)
Typical (median)
Quiet (bottom 25%)
Provider Coverage vs Census (hover for patients-per-provider ratio)
43210
7A12P7P12A6A
2 providers (gap)
3 providers
4 providers (peak)
WR Census & LWBS Risk Threshold
1410620
WR=8 threshold
7A12P7P12A6A
When WR > 8 patients, LWBS events begin. Peak WR of 22 (P95) at 7pm.
15.5
Peak Load
pts/provider @ 7pm
6.5
Best Coverage
pts/provider @ 4pm
10h
Night Gap
only 2 providers
7.4
Avg Load
pts/provider (24h)
24-Hour Timeline: Shifts + Census + LoadHover for details
7A89101112P1234567P89101112A123456
Census
Patients in ED
Providers
Resident
AP
Attending
Load (pts/provider)
<8 Good
8-12
>12 High
10PM - 7AM
2 providers clear 20 to 11 patients overnight
3PM - 6PM
4 providers handle plateau (26-31 pts)
7PM Handoff
Night inherits 31 patients at peak
Deep Dive: Peds ED PatternsFY24/25 Data Analysis
Winter vs Summer Census
Winter runs 15-20% higher volume
Winter (Oct-Mar)
Summer (Apr-Sep)
APP Coverage Calendar
Weekly hours: High (25+)Medium (18-24)Low (<18)
Waiting Room Census Throughout Day
Peaks mid-afternoon, clears overnight
7A101P47P101A46
1-2
Boarding Patients
Average overnight (12A-6A)
3%
LWBS Rate
~3 patients/day leave
12%
Admission Rate
~12 admits/day
12P-10P
Fast Track Hours
10 hours coverage
Daily Encounter Variability by Provider Type
Some days are much busier than others
MD
2438122
APP
112338
Resident
183069
10th percentileMedian90th percentile
Surge Days
MD volume can spike to 122/day (3x median). Plan for high-census protocols.
Thursday Dip
APP coverage drops to 18 hours on Thursdays vs 29 hours Wednesday.
WR Clears by 2AM
Waiting room drops to 1-2 patients after 2AM. Night team focuses on rooms.
Seasonal Staffing Proportionality
Does staffing scale with demand?
Winter (Oct–Mar)
5 shifts
42.5 h/day
Peak Census: 31
Summer (Apr–Sep)
4 shifts
34 h/day
Peak Census: 28
Proportional? Census drops ~10% (31 → 28) but staffing drops 20% (5 → 4 shifts). Is the Mid-Day shift cut justified?
APP Coverage Optimization
Target: 2.5 patients/provider/hour
Friday (9h) and Saturday (11.25h) fall below the 12.4h target needed for 2.5 PPH during peak census. These are the highest-risk days for APP understaffing.
Demand vs CapacityWhere patient demand exceeds staffing capacity
31
Peak Demand Gap
pts vs 7.5 capacity @ 7pm
2
Night Understaffing
providers for 20 patients
4pm
Best Coverage
6.5 pts/provider ratio
22
WR Overflow
Peak WR P95 @ 7pm
Census vs Provider Capacity (24h, 7am start)Bars = census mean | Step line = providers on duty
35261780
7A12P7P12A6A
Census (mean)Adequate coverageDemand exceeds capacity
Hourly Net Flow (Arrivals − Discharges − Admits)Green = clearing | Red = building
+40-4
7A12P7P12A6A
Waiting Room Census (Leading Indicator)Threshold at WR=8 — above this, LWBS risk zone
14840
7A12P7P12A6A
When WR > 8 patients, LWBS events begin. Peak WR of 22 (P95) at 7pm.
7PM – 10PM
Peak demand gap: 31 patients, only 7.5 effective capacity
10PM – 7AM
Night gap: 2 providers clearing 20 patients (10:1 ratio)
3PM – 6PM
Best window: 4 providers, census 27–30, ratio 6.5–7.5